June 24, 2025: National Market Index Update – HPI/CPI Eases to 1.02365​

The National Market Index has released its latest data, showing the Home Price Index Adjusted for Inflation (HPI/CPI) at 1.02365 as of June 24, 2025. This update provides a timely snapshot of U.S. housing market conditions, highlighting ongoing price stability amid persistent inflation and elevated mortgage rates. As a leading measure of inflation-adjusted home values, the HPI/CPI remains an essential tool for interpreting national housing trends, long-term affordability, and market resilience.

Key Highlights of the June 2025 Update
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HPI/CPI at 1.02365: The current index reflects a housing market that remains elevated by historical standards, with March 2025 data indicating home prices approximately 29.7% above the long-term average for that month. While this is down from the May 2022 peak of 1.0412, the index illustrates a market that has cooled modestly without experiencing the severe price declines seen in past corrections.

Mild Market Correction Continues: Now 35 months into the current correction cycle, the drawdown from the 2022 peak stands at approximately -1.68%, a far more measured adjustment compared to the 35.23% peak-to-trough decline during the 2008 housing crisis. This mild correction reflects a fundamentally stronger market structure and ongoing price stability despite economic headwinds.

Historical Perspective: With over a century of data, the HPI/CPI tracks the housing market's performance across major economic events, providing critical insight into home values through past recessions, booms, and corrections. The current trajectory mirrors a more normalized adjustment cycle rather than a disruptive downturn.

Long-Term Appreciation Holds: From 0.8299 in January 2020 to 1.02365 in June 2025, the inflation-adjusted index has increased by approximately 23.4%, reinforcing real estate’s role as a durable long-term asset class and a hedge against inflation.

Market Trends and Insights
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The latest HPI/CPI figures illustrate a national housing market that continues to correct gradually after the rapid appreciation seen during the pandemic years. Monthly data, detailed within the report, show a steady rise in inflation-adjusted home values from 0.5939 in January 2000 to 1.02365 today. Month-over-month percentage changes have narrowed considerably, with recent readings indicating more stable, predictable fluctuations, in stark contrast to the pronounced volatility of the 2008 downturn.

Page 10 of the report provides a clear side-by-side comparison of the current correction cycle versus the 2008 financial crisis. Thirty-five months into each period, the contrast is striking: today's drawdown of -1.68% pales in comparison to the -23.61% decline that had already occurred by the same point in the 2008 cycle. This signals a fundamentally different market landscape, marked by more balanced price adjustments and greater structural stability.

Implications for Buyers, Sellers, and Investors
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Buyers: Inflation-adjusted home prices remain elevated, with the index nearly 30% above historical averages for comparable months. Combined with higher borrowing costs, affordability remains a significant challenge for prospective buyers. However, the mild downward price adjustments may offer opportunities for well-informed purchasers in select markets.

Sellers: Despite the modest decline from the 2022 peak, national home values remain historically strong. Sellers benefit from relative price stability, though success still requires strategic pricing and a keen understanding of local market dynamics given regional variations in demand.

Investors: The long-term data reinforces real estate’s enduring value. With a 23.4% increase in inflation-adjusted home prices since 2020, the asset class continues to demonstrate its reliability as both an inflation hedge and a source of stable returns over time.

Why This Data Matters
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Unlike nominal home price measures, the HPI/CPI adjusts for inflation to present a true picture of purchasing power and long-term affordability. By isolating housing market performance from broader economic fluctuations, this index—curated and published by Team Price Real Estate—offers a clear, data-driven benchmark for understanding macro-level housing trends. The June 2025 update confirms that while the market is undergoing a measured correction, it remains fundamentally sound and far more resilient than during past downturns.

Looking Ahead
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With the HPI/CPI now at 1.02365, the national housing market continues to demonstrate stability within a broader correction cycle. Buyers, sellers, and investors alike are encouraged to track monthly updates from the National Market Index and integrate local housing data to guide their strategies. As economic conditions evolve, this index will remain a trusted resource for interpreting real estate trends and making informed decisions in a shifting environment.